Published May 23, 2023, 12:20 p.m. by Arrik Motley
chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a big beneficiary of the digitalization of the restaurant industry, according to KeyBanc Capital markets.
analyst Eric Gonzalez upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight on Monday, writing that the company is in the early innings of its digital transformation.
"We see a number of catalysts that should drive above-average same-store sales and earnings growth over the next several years, including the ongoing rollout of chipotle's digital platform, which we believe is a significant long-term growth driver," Gonzalez wrote in a note to clients.
chipotle has been investing heavily in digital, including a partnership with DoorDash, launching a loyalty program, and increasing its focus on catering. The company is also piloting new restaurant concepts, including a "Chipotlane" drive-thru.
"We believe these investments, combined with an attractive valuation, make CMG an attractive risk/reward at current levels," Gonzalez wrote.
The analyst raised his price target to $1,650 from $1,400.
chipotle shares were up 2.4% in premarket trading on Monday.
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Chipotle out with his results reporting
strong first quarter earnings a beat on
the top and bottom lines with a nearly
11 percent increase in comparable of
store sales joining us now is Sean
Dunlop Morningstar Equity analyst so
Sean let's get right into this what's
your biggest takeaway from these results
yeah I think a really positive quarter
for Chipotle no matter how you chop it
up on the comp side I believe it was
10.9 percent comp sales growth that edge
door estimate for 8.3 percent on the
margin side we saw those Gap up to 25.6
percent on the Restaurant level against
a guy in the neighborhood of 24 so a
really positive quarter of the market
reaction certainly attests to that maybe
if we had one qualm it would be unit
development lagged a little bit they
opened 41 net new stores and we'd
forecast 61 but given that they
maintained four-year guidance it's more
of a timing issue we think than anything
structural and Sean you've got a hold of
15 50
anything caused you to rethink that
yeah I mean we'll certainly wait for
commentary on the call seal strength
through the first quarter has been
really strong in the dining segment what
we're struggling with a little bit is
consumers are spending about 10 percent
more than they usually do on dining out
and that's not the pattern that we
typically see when you see declining
savings rates when you see
um the sort of macroeconomic pressure
that we've seen increasing use of
revolving credit and this would be
really surprised as we move through the
balance of the year of consumer health
stays this strong it will be interesting
management furnished guidance for the
second quarter it'll be interesting to
see if they're willing to talk about
what they expect over the back half of
the year that's what we'd really expect
to see weakness and we think that to the
extent that that plays out it's going to
be difficult for a restaurant operators
to see too much incremental margin
recapture over the balance of 2023. so
you're a little bit cautious on it uh
based on that how did you feel looking
at the numbers today about the pricing
and how that played into the comparable
store sales
yeah consumers seem to have borne it
very well for Brands like Chipotle for
Brands like Starbucks that you'd
typically think of as boasting pricing
power and and so they've been able to
hold up a little bit better in terms of
margin than we've seen with some of the
more value-driven qsrs McDonald's
reported this morning for example in a
bit of a sequential Decline and
restaurant margins albeit with really
healthy guest traffic so with Chipotle
this is a predominantly price lead
rather than traffic-led comp but for now
they're predominantly affluent consumers
seems to be bearing these price
increases very well it'll just be
interesting to see as we move further
into the year as we see historically low
savings rates where the consumers start
to tighten the belt with a little bit
more time
yeah instead of tightening the belt
Chipotle makes this you know take the
belt off and wear sweatpants doesn't it
Sean uh the operating margins you
mentioned 15.5 that's up from 9.4 and a
dramatic expansion for for a burrito
chain the Stock's up about 30 percent
year-to-date do you just feel like a lot
of that upside is already priced in
we certainly do it at Morningstar yeah I
mean as you think about why consumers
figure restaurants you know value for
the money is high on that list we've
seen declining traffic we've seen
declining items per check industry-wide
and we've seen a widening valuation Gap
as you think about the permeal cost of a
restaurant meal versus an equivalent
meal in the grocery store Channel
given the behavior that we typically see
when consumers are pressured shifting a
little bit away from dining out and that
we haven't seen that yet we're pretty
cautious on the sector writ large now
investors like it because it tends to be
fairly recession resistant a lot of
these companies pay fairly competitive
dividends there's a lot to like in
restaurant land if you need consumer
cyclical exposure but we think a lot of
the upsets priced in Sean are you
expecting a trade down uh from uh a
Chipotle to say say a McDonald's if the
pricing pressures for Chipotle to if the
inflationary environment rather
continues to force some more price
increases
we could see a little bit of that I
don't know that the customer base is
necessarily correlated one to one but we
do typically see consumers trade down
from from fast casual for example into
qsr and we've seen some of that already
we see a little bit from some of the
Full Service dining options into fast
casual into qsr so it's these aren't
necessarily normal Goods where consumers
spend exactly the way you'd expect for
certain consumers a qsr meal might be a
normal good where when they have more
money they'll spend more on it for
others it may be an inferior good where
they're trading into it from a fast
casual like Chipotles that's kind of
what we're monitoring it really is guest
transaction count that we're looking at
over the next couple of quarters they're
always on the Leading Edge of Technology
you mentioned the 34 Chipotle Lanes of
the 41 they've opened 39 percent uh
digital sales pretty impressive number
there and now they've got these all
electric locations starting to open up
this year how does that technology play
into the investor story
yeah it's it's really a huge unlock for
restaurants so you think about uh if I
go in order from a Chipotle at the
counter they don't know that much
information about mayor particularly
from ordering through third-party app
but when I'm ordering through their own
mobile order and payment system or when
I'm ordering through an all-electric
store through the Chipotle lens you know
a lot more about my price elasticity
which which items I tend to order
together and so it offers a much closer
relationship with the consumer it's much
easier to prop up traffic with sort of
personalized offers during a period
where maybe consumer is a little bit
more reluctant to come out to the
restaurant and by and large we see the
biggest restaurant chains like a
Chipotle or McDonald's have the most
robust digital platforms and so we think
they're the best position as we move
into a more challenging environment in
the back half of the Year shares up five
and a half percent after hours Sean
Dunlap good to see you my friend thanks
so much
all right coming up what consequences
could come with the second term from
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