Twitter: Health Insurance, Real Estate, Diversification, Natural Gas, Oil, Platinum

hey everyone hope you're having a good

day my name is Andy my channel is

finding value uh today we're gonna go

through Twitter I'm gonna give you my

financial opinions around a lot of

different tweets that I'm reading about

and hopefully you guys are getting a lot

of value out of this

um a lot of the times I have a little

bit different Viewpoint than others and

sometimes I get a little bit irritated

and I have to share my opinions with

somebody with that somebody's you guys

um after reading some of these tweets I

just feel like I have to talk about it

so um

let's go through a whole bunch of

different tweets uh this is going to be

a a wide array of different things I'm

even going to talk about uh health

insurance and dental insurance uh

because it it I'll just give you my

opinions around it and it seems like

people are maybe they haven't run the

math I don't know

but um but let's dive in and I'll I'll

start talking about it so it's at uh

finding underscore Finance if you want

to follow me on Twitter

um that's that so it says patients upset

that one root canal treatment ate up

their insurance for 2023 they chose a

low Premium plan it sucks but the

reality is that they should they chose

this plan they had three options

um and a lot of people you know I read

somewhere I was looking in that thread

and they said oh I always choose the the

best insurance or whatever it is

I just want to talk about insurance real

quick

um mine is particular to health

insurance not really well I could talk

about dental too but um I almost always

exclusively choose the low premium High

deductible higher deductible plans

um my company has three Health Options

now I have a family plan so my plan may

be very different than your plan as an

individual or as someone who's like you

and spouse or something but I'm on a

family plan

and our our plan

I'm not going to go into the details of

it but I'll just do a very high level

thing very low premium very high

deductible and on that plan they cap

each individual at about seven thousand

dollars is the max out of pocket for

that single individual anything above

that single individual they're going to

cover it 100

um after that seven thousand is is met

that kind of changes the Dynamics of

doing these scenarios where you get a

single person they have a problem uh and

then you're basically it's beneficial to

have the low

uh low premium High deductible plan in

that type of scenario if they cover

seven thousand dollars and on

I can't find

very many scenarios where the higher

premium plans at least in mind

are beneficial to the the end person

most of the time you know if I were to

have a ten thousand dollar problem uh or

if it were to go and max out

the low Premium plan is better so it's

the the higher premium plans the middle

plan and the option one and option two I

have option three which is the low

premium High deductible the middle one's

a higher much higher premium and then a

smaller deductible the problem with

these these plans if they're all high

deductible plans is one you're stuck

with the premium and no matter what

you're going to eat that premium you're

gonna you're gonna have to pay for the

premium then if you have a problem like

a five thousand dollar problem you still

have to cover the entire deductible out

of your pocket first

on that high Premium plan so that plan

just basically blows with anything

that's a low-cost

problem

um that's a let's say a few thousand

dollars in a year three thousand five

thousand six thousand that that print

that thing can't it can't make it up

because the premium eats all your money

the low Premium plan if you get a three

thousand five thousand dollar charge

you're good and if one person encounters

a fifty thousand dollar charge you still

benefit on the low Premium plan because

it's capped at seven thousand dollars

for a single individual at least my plan

all the other plans suck because you're

stuck with the premium no matter what

doesn't matter how much money comes out

of your pocket that money's coming out

of your pocket either way the only way

that it may be beneficial is that you're

paying pre-tax money

for that that premium

but you can also cover stuff with HSA or

whatever else on the back end and I

don't even use my HSI I I use money in

my account my regular account pay for it

and leave the money in the HSA to have

that grow because that's a Triple Tax

advantaged account where I can grow it

very quickly and make it large and use

it as retirement income

it's almost like having a Roth IRA to

some extent

um but from what I've what I've all the

numbers that I've run and I haven't I

don't have the numbers here

um I've almost always

it would have been beneficial to always

had the lower Premium plan because you

can you have the

the ability to not spend it and now

you're playing the statistics game over

many years

so if I were to run this uh scenario for

10 or 15 years I would benefit more

going on a lower premium higher

deductible plan and rolling the dice

every single year because a lot of those

years I'm never going to have to it'll

benefit me to be on the low Premium plan

myself this is my my scenario with a

bunch of kids on it

then

the if I were to have if I were to make

the wrong option

so let's say I chose the wrong option

and this one would have been better how

much would I have saved choosing the

other option and the most it really is

is like between a thousand and two

thousand dollar difference so I'm like

well even if I choose wrong

the outcome isn't that bad

so now you're just looking at my thought

process so the thought process is what

could I save on the first one which

could be tens of thousands of dollars

because the premiums difference is so

large it could be up to a hundred

thousand dollars over a 10-year span

with premium differences

but

the if I were to choose wrong in one

year what would my benefit be choosing

the more expensive plan the difference

is like a thousand or two thousand

dollars so it's like who cares that

that's been my opinion on it

um you choosing option one with the high

premium and being right will only save

you a thousand to two thousand dollars

more

there's no there's no upside there in my

opinion but I just wanted to share that

at least those are my plans and they may

differ greatly for yours

uh Mike says available inventories of

homes for sale is still falling sellers

simply aren't keeping up with demand

inventory of single family homes fell by

2.5 percent this week to four hundred

and eighteen thousand the fewest since

last June the Altus research housing

market video has Deeds so look at this

we continue to draw down our inventories

for Real Estate guys this here is just a

little bit larger seasonal Trend moving

a little bit higher but we're still

drawing down like we would in most of

these other areas

let's take a look at the the thing that

he says here it says slight increase in

the new listings this week still fewer

than last year immediate sales picked up

too 18 000 homes got listed and it went

into contract right away 24 000 last

year at this time there's just no sign

of any surge in inventory anywhere in

the country completely agree at least

someone's on my page says consumers are

obviously price sensitive but still

buying the price of new listings is

389.9 now versus three three hundred

ninety nine thousand last year median

home price is 425.

you should see the headlines agree on

negative annual HPA in a few months

yep so coming on down here's the

surprise more homes went into contract

this week than last year at this time

69 000 versus 68 000 last year Lots

fewer pendings overall 426

000 versus 404 000 but in notable sales

uptick from last Falls ice cold Market

even as mortgage rates are at seven

percent and I I talked about this before

that

mortgages and and the rates going up may

not have the impact

against the buyers that will than what

most people think

that the housing market may be more

resilient than what most people think

and I'm still in that camp I need to see

the data change and convince me

otherwise

but it's still looking very positive for

the housing market

says price reductions data confirms

obviously cooler Market but not tanking

from here 31 percent of the homes have

taken a price cut recently it's really

hard to see the most dire predictions

for the housing market being realized

this year with Supply so restricted

I agree

price reductions hitting low for for the

year of 31 so it is coming back down but

you can see how it usually uh Moves In

other years as well you can kind of see

we dip then we bottom out and we kind of

come back up

a little bit throughout the year it says

all the surprising details in this

week's Altos research real estate market

video buyers continue to outpace Sellers

and inventory keeps falling

Wednesday 3 15 is our next webinar he

goes on with that stuff as well

so the housing market stronger than

expected I think than what most people

are expecting

I also wanted to touch on this one so

Warren Buffett and I agree with Warren

here I don't agree with Carter McClung

it says diversification May preserve

wealth but concentration builds wealth

so diversification preserves it

concentration builds it concentration is

what I did at the bottom of 2020. I

concentrated a lot of my Holdings into

oil and gas basically into energy is

what I did

and it built a lot of wealth a lot I was

Heavy in natural gas producers and oil

producers same with uranium

and and in 2020

and it did very well and this guy I

think I don't know we'll see what his

argument is he says your gut response

may be but if I bought ten thousand of

Apple stock in 95 my annualized rate of

return would be 26 and would be worth 2

million bucks today sure but you're

missing something

concentration May quickly build wealth

but it will also but it also quickly

destroys it JP Morgan put out a paper

called The Agony and ecstasy the risks

and rewards of concentrated stock

positioning in their research they found

the following

using the Russell 3000 since 1980

roughly 40 percent of all stocks have

suffered a permanent 70 percent plus

decline from their Peak value Tech

metals and Mining head losses greater

than 50 the median stock returned since

Inception versus the Russell 3000

indexes minus 54. looking under the hood

of the S P 500 the returns of the

individual stocks that make up that

index are highly skewed as an investor

the best way to protect against the risk

of permanent loss of capitals through

building a portfolio that combines these

risky assets

the portfolio determines the majority of

your current and expected future return

they revolutionize portfolio

construction emphasizing the importance

of asset allocation discovering 94 of

the total return variation was solely

from asset allocation yeah I agree with

that

that 94 the total return agreed it says

this places importance on what you hold

over your skill to time the market or to

pick stocks to generate market returns

the optimal asset allocation will depend

on your goals time Horizon taxes

liquidity needs and risk return

objectives the goal of your optimal

asset allocation construct a portfolio

that gives you the highest return per

unit of risk in practice how do we

achieve this totally agree with this

though construct a portfolio that gives

you the highest return per unit of risk

and I've talked about this a lot on our

website a ton

a lot of people they want to go after

high returns but they're taking on too

much risk so you want to do a ratio and

you want to maximize your returns per

unit of risk completely 100 percent

agree with this part here it says

looking backwards this is easy I can

just back test and select the Securities

that generate the highest returns with

the least amount of risk looking forward

this is hard the difficulty is no one

knows which asset class will perform the

best and that's where the ratio analysis

comes into play you

it says therefore we must build a

portfolio that best captures our

expectations of what future returns will

look like this is this is hard because

what performs well this year may not

perform well next year I agree with that

it says think large stocks will provide

so he goes into all this other stuff and

I don't think it's too much value there

but what I want to talk about is

if you can figure out what assets can do

well

given the market conditions what you

want to do is you want to combine the

three or four things that we talked

about here you want to concentrate on

those

sectors

that have the best risk reward

and and you can do that by ratio

investing

looking at ratios looking at the market

conditions

and then

honing in

on those companies that are really down

and concentrating some of that wealth

into those areas

and then

since we know where the best sectors are

and the market conditions and where the

best the best risk rewards so this is

the highest return per unit of risk the

way that you're you're mitigating your

risk is you're mitigating your risk by

when you buy it

that is how you make a lot of money it's

not about

it's not about portfolio allocation to

certain sectors I mean it is but

it's when you buy it it's your entry

point

and you can concentrate on what would be

highly risky highly volatile companies

but you you take that risk when all the

risk is sucked out of it

that's where your Returns come from your

highest Returns come from companies that

have a gigantic amount of Leverage to

the upside and your risk is when you're

buying it

it's very very low

now your risk can still be high in terms

of maybe

a company that could potentially go

bankrupt so the risk of bankruptcy could

be there but that's how you get the

potential of these outsized Hunter

Baggers they get sold off to Pennies on

the dollar because people think they

could potentially go bankrupt they run

for the sidelines and that's when you

could pick it up if you

are good at looking at the market

conditions changing rapidly so a company

could be close to bankruptcy because the

commodity price goes below their cost

curve but if you are good at at

technical analysis and you're good at

ratios you can say okay we're cheap here

we know that this company's been blown

out to the downside

my return could be massive but I do have

to take on some risk but the upside

potential is so ridiculous per the unit

of risk that it's worth risking some

money in it

that is what I did that's how I made my

money

is I made my money by buying medium to

high cost commodity companies at the

bottom of 2020

and I did it with the companies that had

the infrastructure in place and all I

needed was the commodity price to come

back

it was one massive leveraged play

against the commodity price

and that's what I did that's how I made

a lot of the money in from 2020 onward

so I wanted to kind of share that

this is the National Mortgage

delinquency rate is near its record low

look at what happens historically when

it has hit a low extreme it suddenly and

sharply spikes higher extremes are

called extremes for a reason now I'm

gonna I have nothing against Adam but I

think he's completely wrong here

um you got to think deeper than this

this is just a uh

a a a look at a chart and then try to

um come up with some stupid I'm I'm

sorry guys this is reasoning is just

stupid it has no Logics tied to it well

you know if uh if we had a low extreme

then suddenly it just spikes higher okay

guys let's say

let's say and I'm just going to give an

example here all right

let's say our delinquency rate is

incredibly low

um now now I'm going to give a scenario

here I'm going to cut back in here uh

this this post kind of gets me a little

bit pissed off so sorry if I'm a little

bit mad

um if you go into a very tight housing

market uh which we're in that's why we

have no inventory if we weren't in a

housing if we weren't in a tight housing

market we have a bunch of inventory and

our prices would be collapsing all right

with interest rates going up like we are

we're not

that's the whole thing to to think that

we are means that you're missing

something that's in the market because

we're in an anomaly stage we're in an

anomaly because we're below six months

of inventory which has never had a price

decline in history and we had price

declines recently which means that the

market is digesting the the large

increase in mortgage rates

now if the delinquency rates at all time

lows there's another explanation it

doesn't mean that we're just going to

spike out of nowhere so let's look at

the chart and let's try to use a little

bit of logic on this thing all right so

the national delinquency rate first lien

mortgages we're at 3.38 percent

if we look at data the data suggests

that we are short somewhere in the range

of three to six million homes

that is what the shortages in the homes

if we've got that shortage guess what

happens all right so if we have that

shortage in the market it means that

people with higher credit ratings are

going to buy homes and be better

qualified to buy these homes than people

with lower credit scores and people who

have less down payments and less money

their income is less

so what's going to happen in my opinion

is that this will stay down for a period

of time

and that period of time that it stays

down is because

of the shortage in the market

and the ability

I should say and the inability

for people to afford homes that cannot

afford homes

so you're going to get the best quality

candidates or the best quality buyers

however you want to call it

the best quality buyers with the most

amount of money buying homes and

everyone else gets priced out of that

market

so your delinquency rate should be low

because you have a shortage of homes

which means that

that you're pricing out the bottom 60 70

percent need to get priced out of the

market one through affordability

and two

uh when people compete for homes

and they can sell them at higher and

higher prices it means that the people

who can buy these homes have better

credit scores more more money for down

payments etc etc

now what happened back here is that they

got rid of all of the credit worthiness

they just started loaning to everyone

back here

and that's what led to these large

delinquency rate of mortgages

so when you have a bubble

and you have too much Supply they're

going to sell homes to anybody they're

like screw it take this house just take

it but what if you have very few homes

to sell

and there's it's it's a lot more

expensive you're gonna have to have

better more qualified buyers

so at some point this will kick up I

completely agree with it I just think

that the market is really tight right

now

and I think that

it's going to be tough

it's going to be tough for uh for for

non-qualified buyers to buy homes right

now

I think it's gonna be very tough

and that's going to keep it's going to

keep this delinquency rate I think low

for a for a good period of time

unless we have some sort of

like gigantic event like recession

depression where everyone's just losing

jobs then you can see the delinquency

rate really kick up but I don't think

we're there yet

says net gas working on the bottom

it says buying is the right probability

uh to me I completely agree now is this

the ultimate bottom I think it probably

is going to do a double bottom here he's

probably got that drawn about right

and I wanted to share this because I

mean

people will be saying oh you know it's

going to go back down you shouldn't be

in it it's not a proven bottom or

confirmed bottom guys if you just cost

average in the entire bottom over here

it doesn't matter

you're gonna get the best lowest price

cost averaging in in an asset that is

incredibly cheap against all other

assets

and and as long as you can ride through

it you'll be just fine and you know I

don't like some of these guys that think

they can just try they're trying to try

to time the bottom to the nth degree I

just don't think that's a smart way to

do it I you know if something's cheap on

a ratio perspective the natural gas is

cheap to basically everything right now

um I just think that's a really good

opportunity it also has a Livermore

accumulation cylinder one two three four

five six seven and at the bottom of

seven what you get is this large like

hump that comes down basically how he's

drawing it in here you go up you come

back down that's a big hump you'll get a

lead-in pattern and then you and then

you go up again

and you'll get like this hump like see

these little humps here you get a hump

you get a lead-in pattern and then you

start to take off again

so give it time I think it'll be just

fine and even if it stays down for six

months it doesn't really matter you're

gonna get such cheap shares and some of

these natural gas companies it just

doesn't matter to me if I'm a little bit

early

um here's Ura I also liked his chart

that he's got here and what we have is a

downtrend

you've got a basing pattern and then

we've broken that basing pattern to the

upside and it's consolidating before

would potentially could be a big move

and I agree with this pattern and

usually what you get is the upside here

looks very much like the way it came

back down

so uh Global uranium ETF uh Ura I think

is what this is yep Ura looks very good

uh says this is simply very big picture

setup is coming uh to a close fairly

soon it needs to make a choice break out

above the yellow resistance and start

the next leg up uh in this secular bull

market or breakdown below the blue

secular bull market uptrend line so

here's your uptrend line from 2001.

we're coming on up we're squeezing on up

and he's saying is this a halfway

pattern where it could be a cup and

handle pattern uh that's generally a

continuation pattern and hopefully we

can break out there's a little false

breakout right there

and I think we're going to move higher

based off the market conditions it's a

clean looking pattern here

uh and and yeah it looks really good

uh Eric not only says we remain bullish

on oil he says we are very clearly in an

energy Supply crisis Eric nettle sees

return of triple digit oil I also think

that natural gas will do well if you're

a patient investor and you buy it very

cheap prices like we're at and we may

stay down here for another month or two

but

I think it's a really good opportunity

that that's my take on it

uh here's the FED has already reduced

liquidity more than in previous

tightening Cycles post 2000 it's down 23

from its peak so these are the

tightening Cycles 18 17 now we're down

23 and it's more than the previous

couple of Cycles

I thought that was kind of cool

uh it says no hype in critical Metals

investing yet there's no one there

that's pretty crazy but I also think

that a lot of people would rather watch

it online than participate real uh you

know in real life so that that could

also be a

a contributor

uh says we'll need more copper in the

next 22 years than we've ever mined in

history and this is the copper the green

metal World consumption of refined

copper this is 700 million metric tons

from 2020 before uh 20 20 20 21 and then

in the next 22 years we need another 700

million metric tons over the next 22

years uh is the same amount as well

you've mined already in world history

and I don't know if we can mine that

amount in that time frame

I don't know

uh here's Connor Scoops I'll skip that

one so here's says said before the ratio

bottomed in March of 2020. that Platinum

is going to outperform gold in the

coming Bowl pioneering Platinum case on

fintuit I like last week's red circle

bullish engulfing candle at support I

like it to

um hopefully even get a big old run out

of platinum uh in relationship to Golden

they both actually run higher at the

same time

I I think Platinum is one of the best

investments uh there is in the market

then we also have Platinum versus SPX I

do very much like platinum and that's

breaking out against the S P 500 doing a

little retest and then we'll probably

move on up from there it says breakout

of the 15-year bullish falling wedge and

very probable back test and we're

getting that back test in here shortly

but you can see that the macd is

continuing to move up and we're about to

get into positive territory once you get

in positive territory that's when it

usually goes up I don't really use these

types of metrics I use ratios more and I

don't care necessarily the exact timing

of it what I generally do is I buy the

bottom of of an entire thing so I might

be buying a night 2019 I'll buy this

entire bottom here and then ride this

thing on up and I'll buy copious amounts

because the risk the returns per unit of

risk in this metal is very good in my

opinion

uh here's Nat gas wave one so he's

talking about wave one and a pullback

that we could get in a potential move

in the short short term though

uh uranium uranium is also putting in

inverted shoulder head shoulder type

pattern and then we can break and move

on higher so we're still very early in

this mix

which is good

and that's what I am going to end on

so that's what I've got for today guys

hopefully you enjoyed it I know I talked

a little bit about insurance

um

at least with my plan that's what I've

calculated out using an Excel

spreadsheet in different scenarios

uh highly likely scenarios as well

uh but I don't have multiple sick kids

it's like they're pretty much healthy

um they do have asthma or whatever and

they do have some problems every once in

a while with their breathing because

they were pretty much I have two

premature there are premature twins they

were 27 weakers

um pretty crazy their costs there when

we had them and they had to go in the uh

the NICU and stuff

but every once in a while they might

have a flare-up but it's nothing that's

major

and this they've been pretty healthy so

you know lucky me and Lucky them

um in the markets here

looking at a lot of this stuff

you know I I still think everything

looks absolutely fantastic and we're

still very low on ratio charts for a lot

of the value of these different

commodities

so if you guys have any interest in a

lot of these Commodities what they are

what companies am I playing it with you

can see my portfolio definitely check

out finding heisenvalue.com join the

website you can use the word discount

the coupon code get your discount

uh we have a platinum question and

answer session Sunday at 5 PM Mountain

Standard Time uh we'll see you there if

you're a platinum member and if you've

been with the with the um website for

about a year I'm going to give you a

further discount

um message me about the discount and I

will uh give you that discount code if

you've been with me for about a year

all right guys we'll catch you next time

this is finding value