Tip TV Finance Show 31-10-2014

Oh

okay good morning my name is Nicola

moose Batsuit the commander-in-chief tip

TV coat UK the date friday the 31st lock

toba thank you team for that intro on

the old music very good we're here 10

a.m. every day covering markets and

sport live from the heart of London's

and Paul's purpose making money through

thought-provoking ideas strong

conviction tips of short-term trading as

we always say do not gamble with more

than you can afford to lose today's

guest lists in no particular order Zack

mere Stephen Woodcock Stephen main Tommy

burn Alan Green Minaj lab work Nigel

Seeley eight Fulton Dave Bassett and

Wally Downes right let's kick off with

Zach mere the editors spread bet

magazine morning to young Zach morning

happy Halloween nice to see you dressed

up my favorite building on the festivity

right let's go straight into the first

slide the brokers forecast you chosen

888 holdings brewing party and union

jack why have you picked these and what

are you thinking I you know I love the

gambling stocks i love gambling plays so

that's why we've got two here today 888

shares are a one-pound 30 deutsche bank

seem to be rather bearish on it which i

think is wrong the lows 110 for the year

so that looks like it's a bit negative

but be win or bwin.party digital

entertainment another online sort of

gaming gambling trading company one

pound 21 a target there and the chart

actually looks quite healthy so I think

they're around the 90 pence level a

little bit of a failure earlier this

week but still looks reasonably solid so

I would agree with that buy from

deutsche bank and then we have union

jack oil a great a private investor

favorite yeah and who interviewed them

who interviewed them unfortunates been a

little bit of a wobble in the share

price but that's why i thought it might

be just worth highlighting northern

capitals

coverage of the shares okay so let's

move on to the next slide Nicole

Elliot's I thought this was just

something for halloween a grave yard

plot san paolo baster corinthians

football club and its new arena

corinthians stadium in built for the

world cup will offer up to 70,000

graveyard plots for players staff and

fans with a patchy championship record

yellow fan base of around 25 million

supporters will be able to buy plot

starting at just under two thousand

dollars tho those close to the famous

footballers will be more expensive i

think that's a business model that could

be rolled out to many other football

arms around the world that's a great

idea it may be the weekend a stock

market graveyard for all the Bears out

there after what think I 30 hours

overnight that's a good that's a good

lead in their foots you up 74 points

today one will excellent yeah let's go

to the live charts and see if we can now

go so I've seen a bank of japan

overnight the things that sort of come

straight away to me is dollar yen okay

we got Steven Woodcock coming on the

market was at 105 he said this is going

to take out 110 and we will talk about

this trend line back to 2000 and so got

it out see spot on than me brilliantly I

mean the 110 was a 20 years 20 year

resistance line and just sort of melted

away like a butter overnight well we'll

talk about that in terms the actual

charts themselves got quite a few to to

wheeze through you I thought we'd start

with the Nasdaq if we could then how

easy or difficult that would be easy

okay because we was all about these

gapping plays and again yeah that's so

we've had our two gaps so far I was

looking for the top of this channel

which I've drawn 40 to 50 and given the

way that the market is and you know in

general it looks as though we will

probably get there even if that is the

top of the market yet the near term okay

and what about the Nick I've you got the

code for that this morning

obviously let me go right so I let me

just get the right press the right

buttons and okay I ok so as you would

work with the stimulus move from the

bank of japan 18th well we've sort of

gapped up there and we're at the pies of

the year last couple of years and just

favorable business so basically but bear

trap actually earlier this month below

15,000 up towards 14 and a half thousand

and straight up again yeah yeah okay

let's kick off with I AEG see the rap

four percent or so first thing obviously

the impact of oil yes I mean I think

that's something to remember probably

don't stress it enough how much of a the

proportion of the cost of an airline are

actually it's down to feel it's

basically a fuel play as much as

anything else I heard yesterday that

Airlines only make three pounds per

customer and rip that's somewhere so you

know that you have a coffee there

there's a double their money but that

just underlines if they get anything

back from a cheaper crude price that

they are happy okay let's not look at

vodafone next solid backup up the

two-pound never were they looking good

on your charts or we had to step around

yet basically if you've got the way i

would look at it as a share shouldn't

really have gone below 190 you had that

too tenpence overshoot with the with the

october sell-off in the start in the

stock market should get back towards 215

maybe a little bit higher after that

okay wpp reported obviously all eyes on

mr. Sorrell yes he was talking about all

sorts of stuff um he's a bit of a bit of

a philosopher yeah Emma's of the economy

of his tongue out obviously we know

about black swans bees now divided in

grace ones and all sorts of other sort

of but a bit of business leader that we

listen to yeah I think he's sort of i'm

not quite sure how cutting edges a bit

of that was a bit more like a sort of

you know a wise old head but and also

i'm not sure also i mean how how much in

a WP peed actually reflects world

economy situated at the world economy

but in

he doesn't know stuff okay technically

boy I sell a whole back within 11 pounds

to 14 pounds range probably over the

next than the near term okay had out we

had our bear trap last month understood

this ma'am supergroup I'm sent this

morning profits warning off the back of

weather body just exceptionally warm

weather which obviously where it was

sampling today I think that the company

had its issues even before the the

weather if you look at the chart we had

the gap down in May failed to fill that

gap and as you know from what I've said

many times before once you have a failed

gap feel either on the downward it's a

ticking time bomb basically so six

pounds we could see a bit of support

there from June around the current

levels around the eight pound level but

it would be surprising if the shares

don't actually mature a bit a royal bank

of scotland again for X probes 400

pounds sort of 400 million pounds set

aside Barker's had 500 million pounds

set aside I just wonder who pays the

paper you know the answer to that and

you know it just seems to be a bit of a

scam really I think that if the company

had to pay or in it more directly let's

say I don't think they would contest I

would think that we can test these

probes rather more vigorously yeah ok so

again that's got upside potential sort

of 390 Ariel we had I think nobody i

supported out this bear trap below the

time of day moving average when it

happened all the day of the day on back

affair the one attached there so this is

actually been quite a good trading stock

yeah this guy's golf Keystone's we're

talking about these gap up to 82 pence

does that get filled no it came to work

in progress I'm still looking for that I

mean the good the good news is that we

bounced off the 50-day moving average

today at 65 so you got risking three

pens to try and get that 10 15 pence

upside okay um a VN vanta communications

another bear ravaged stock I like

looking at these private investor stocks

which have been ravaged and this is this

is a sort of one of the satellites is

inessa satellite and the Bears really

hate this company they've done

everything they can to throw throw mud

at it

and but on this at least on this

occasion this looks like a great

reversal here and possibly back towards

two pounds 80 right okay and Range

Resources yeah we interviewed them there

has been obviously the wobble of late

looks as though the shares of finally

finding some support around point seven

point eight pence so that might be

something to keep an eye on obviously if

we can get you know if you can hold that

we would hope that eventually we go back

to the dizzy heights of turn on yeah

tell oh I'll just see if they building a

base well market through the roof and

Talos looking a little bit weak i think

there is actually noble what is good

here is that the the RSI started to pick

up quite a lot there so there's a

possibility of a little bit of a turn

around there or at least back towards

five 20 but the overall trend they're

looking very weak aviva some libras so

they had this in this stock pick of the

year well we've already had the rebound

as you can see from the trendline are

drawn well i'm looking for 550 so a bit

of upside their profile prudential a

Hargreaves Lansdown breeding a range but

sort of the overall trend here probably

along along the lines of following a

resistance live towards 15 pounds okay

Zach media to spread magazine thank you

for the life market roundup let's take

our first break and waiting in the wings

mr. Stephen Woodcock head of trading at

trade necks the man who knows more about

bowling in than the Bank of Japan after

his previous comments will be straight

up after the break thinking

okay welcome back to show it gives me

great pleasure to ensure its miss

Stephen Woodcock head of trading a trade

next morning to you Steven morning and

what great intro zach has just said

doctors are telling us to walk the two

that is calling for calorie labels on

alcohol and alcoholic drinks so is that

kind of effect sergio's hangover in the

morning that he can say I feel really

rotten because of a dream gallery I've

had too many calories last yeah actually

yeah rack too much probably by eleven

o'clock ish life cycle imagine maternity

mites how many calories are by head ok

let's talk markets let's be serious

great shouts right if you've been

watching tip TV okay I don't your guts

okay nothing to do with doctors your

battery feel in the market is

unbelievable let's kick off with dollar

yen quick recap okay we were talking

about a trend line at 110 round the area

back to nineteen ninety-two it was and

you said this is going to 115 120 we're

going to take the seller's out there and

this morning it happens thanks to the

bank Japan obviously yeah more qqe up to

80 trillion a year and I mean look at

that there I mean look at the top of

that twin that channel we look in one

that's gotta be 118 you agree with that

yeah yeah that's that's okay yeah and so

now I any weakness towards 110 I mean

that should be a gift really and if

there is any like yeah pull back if it

you know be but was there call people we

know with the trousers down yeah was it

expected that there would be anything or

well it wasn't expected but what I'd say

is that obviously data out Japan and and

all that area it lightly hasn't been

that great has it so there I think

they're stepping in earlier rather than

life huh maybe it's a panic move or

they're just now timing is panic I just

think it's quite coming on the BOJ

though we've got to do something that

nothing from that okay no I don't feel

like that and I'd obviously there are

there were words like that being bandied

around but doesn't look like panics a

major flaw so i sent a sensible move the

economy's been stagnating for a while

they need a bit more growth and they

need it you know across the ball don't

they so for me like i say we've taken

one sent out now I've got 113 113 20 to

60 s my next area

but like I say we are enroute to 115 and

one I mean I'll be quite as where I can

see 125 but you know that's coming in

this morning I'm full of myself and 200

points and you know but but I mean I

Gleason comments from the Bank of Japan

over the last few years you know their

preferred right for dollar yen is

between 115 and 125 if that's the case

then we'll show you 130 but but no

listen you know 115 120 is a sensible

level sort of thing that once it gets

started you is the momentum adults in

you can't I mean in a way it goes it

might overshoot you know whatever target

you have it could be like looking at 130

140 150 over six months and you say well

you know it changed trend is a 20-year

trend change and so what ya SPECT well

it's Ali this is what we've been

speaking about worry about it is you

know for a change of basis that is the

change of luck side with can't quit for

me we're coming out of a fifteen dollar

fifteen year dollar beer trend okay what

like we said before whilst the the US

have been continuing on a strong dollar

policy and you know like I said daughter

Swiss came down from 183 down to 75 or

whatever it was whilst pursuing a strong

dollar policy on the dollar index I mean

do you actually look at that excited for

the now are done so we cut that doesn't

sort of that's not in flower doesn't

mean anything to me but we covered the

dollar index some bleep the opening

segment saying ground at this 85 level

okay basically old resistance is new

support and he were to treat that

actually the start of the whole I mean

if we had something you know we had some

research from something that that sort

of started the whole dollar rally so

it's actually useful and we know it was

a leading indicator on but I did start

the dollar rally I think the dollar

itself side the dollar rally and then

the index cat is out never on the

technical side vision yeah maybe but um

I'm just very wary you're like I've said

on here before keep it simple yeah why

you know to try it all again why are you

looking at the dollar index you know and

are now I'm purely look at what you're

trading to get the moves you know but

Sir so this is sterling yen again you

were predicting this sort of price

action well what I said was is that

because I'm obviously I'm still friendly

to Caillou

even though you know we're we're damned

from nothing when I was in the other day

we r 160 around 161 we were around 160

now and like I said I'm a dollar ball

but I'm friendly to cable assy because I

think euro sterling goes lower and I

think fair value for cable at the moment

is 165 so what I said was is you know I

bullion higher I'm friendlier cable we

were we were getting hit 174 I see there

were a lot of sellers in sterling young

we've all seen they're taking it out

with 400 points on this morning from

yesterday so you know yet that were

lovely where do you think this is going

what's the well one I mean really is the

way that with the multiplication of

sterling obviously 210 is well is i know

i know that silly no it's not you know

that when you you know when I first come

in the market you know sterling in

farming remember right there was

something like free faulty you know

dollar yen was 185 so i'm i'm not saying

look we're going back to those levels

but you know when you say you know but

when i came into the market we were 180

dollar yen or 1 120 125 isn't at the

realms possibility is yep and I mean is

this I mean just to reiterate is this a

good time to be involved in trading

currencies I mean yes fantastic time is

it like the one of the better times

you've known in the recent past yeah I'd

say it is yeah yeah we're seeing some

great volatility every day now I mean

when I you know we've spoken before

about one of you know years ago when

used to trade dollar mark / / numbers

you know and you'd see a 20 big figure

move before you know in two hours and

but that was you know with five big

figures up three down two up for down

you know and that's what it did on

numbers you know quoting cable a big

figure why'd you know on numbers you

know and and getting people Pat you and

give you the same time yeah which is

lovely in those days you know but but

now it's you know watching markets much

tighter now but yeah as far as trading

forex at the moment yeah and the charts

are working so well so people are like

new to the air and I think all this is

you know this looks very exciting it's

it is a good time together it is yeah

and obviously as well because we've had

everyone's been concentrating on on

stocks and indices haven't like that's

been the talking point I will allow

well six years and am now that the

volatility is I know that it's still in

the indices I know there's still a lot

movement there about forex will likes I

sterling in last night 400 points are

and that's good money obviously you for

that one obviously you had to be

positioned in the first place because

well yeah they've done that over Tokyo

lunch markets very thin and obviously

there was an accentuation of the move

but but yeah we've seen good much if you

like a bit cynical you're almost say

this enough movement here that you know

if you were wrong initially you could

actually claw it back by reversing and

getting the other you can yeah but

there's there's that movement and the

worst thing you can have in these sorts

of situations you have a sort of a dead

market where you just keep flipping one

way or the other there's no follow

through and just lose a little bit

that's right that's the worst thing for

any trader really of course i always say

Lucky's in that situation where you you

know you've got a trend line and you

trade around the trend line and like you

say you'll do you'll go through it back

for you know that is awful isn't it and

you sit there you're going to lose money

like that because this that's the nature

of the beast but but no at the moment

it's it's moving and that we've got news

all over the world at the moment we've

got plenty of reasons to be trading

currencies can we take a quick look at

cable haha now what what conclusions if

you change any views now now i'm still

like cable i still like it and you know

I know so we're off 130 points from when

I was in the other day but but yeah I

still like it used to be still about

that I know if you would you agree with

that lying I'm not so yeah yeah I do I

like that I don't you know like the fact

you're now checking your homework with

the master commander of the light but no

I still a part of me I'm not ignoring

the chart but a locket I'll do like you

know we've been down to 158 50 on on the

on the pull back down there and I'm

still until we take probably until we

get takeout 157 are 158 then I'll still

do I'll still be looking to supply co

but see the thing is is like you say we

throughout the day intraday we're

getting great movement in cable it is

charting really well so you're you know

you're you're trading the range

ultimately our longer term I'm looking

to be long of this and like sighs

sterling yen and sterling Swiss because

obviously stir the dollar sweetie i

think is going on with the euro Swiss

holding at 120 you know like so one 1558

if you ever saw it you'd be like fitting

of boots basically well yeah I would

yeah if it gets down that way you gotta

you gotta have a little bit of

conviction yeah all right be quiet I

hope we don't go as low as 5850 because

I will get a bit nervous we get down

there but i'll be quite as your bed good

money our table hey never cable loves

doing these little overshoots it does

yeah yeah yeah that would have stopped

everybody out before the big move and it

just you can sort of see it do the same

thing well and we're not able to the

best one for it cable is the one that

when you look back at the charts over

the years that's cable to a tee yeah you

know and if you when you go on sterling

yet as well without at all there was a

little bear trap that's right yeah yeah

it went down to did it go down to 17 eat

to live earlier so it does that little

counter move just to stop everybody yeah

get rid of the weekends we were site and

then if you're there you know what

you're doing that's when you can do it

for the kill yeah right Steven Woodcock

head of trading trade next brilliant

homework we will see you on the morning

trading show next week at or tuesday 8am

correct well done thank you very much

okay let's take a very quick break and

then we're going to talk to mr. stephen

main a director of IPR capital he's

going to be covering the footsie the dow

and gold will be straight back thank you

i'm nick the most batsford

commander-in-chief tip TV you are

watching tip TV

okay welcome back to show making his

second appearance of the day mr. Steven

main director IPR capital very good

morning to you Steven we've just seen

Steve Woodcock who's got 30 years

experience okay absolutely played a

blind there isn't a in the currency

markets are the charts working in the it

on the indices for for you short-term

traders yeah of course they are i think

it just depends what you've got to allow

the market to tell you what to do i

think it soon as you start telling the

market that you know better than that

that's when you get wiped out in any of

your trading accounts so if you're doing

you've got your basic ideas of how your

ways going to trade may be using the

candlestick patterns backed up by

momentum moving averages support and

resistance lines stick to the strategy

you want to use because if you actually

stick to that strategy you're far more

likely to make money then going up

everybody's bearish the markets going to

crash Oh everybody's bullish you start

buying the wrong times that the market

tell you what you want to do and follow

the market and that it gives you the

best opportunity to make money no matter

what the market conditions are clearly

if it's incredibly volatile shooting or

trading horizon if it's very Placid

increase your trading horizon you've got

to be able to work round what the

markets telling you I think people are

far too rigid or just stuck in a view

I'm always bearish or I am always

bullish there the people are going to

start by finding these markets

incredibly difficult to trade right okay

will you kindly selected three charts

for us to run through let's pull the

first slider this was the foot see what

what conclusions because we've had some

people have been very very bearish on

the show and again these sort of these

days okay they're looking at well

licking their wounds aren't they right

well look that's let's just have a look

at the chart what is the chart telling

us we will always been very bearish

around these levels good to be bearish

around these levels we can see that the

market constantly fails to break above

that 6900 mark you have a change of

trend you have a break need to turn to

moving average therefore everybody gets

their super bearish hats on and

money's made bash all the way down

bearish bearish trend then we start

getting some positive divergence from

the IRS I which are just highlighted

market moving down RS I'm moving up

reversal on strong volume yes is there

volume daily bars candlestick by pattern

we've moved up with formed a and noticed

we actually stabbed one formed a high

yet this is just ate this could be a

counter move upward we need to break

above the 65 from the 70 level or we

need to come down and not break this

level and then we've got a change of

trend you can't argue that we are in a

bear move but but this does seem quite

strong bounce upwards until we've formed

either a low or high we can't really

determine what the next move is but if

we follow our basic candlestick patterns

yeah and what the momentum indicators

are telling us if we get by pattern on

positive divergence we have at least

closed out our short positions if not

we've initiated long sessions now I

remember coming on around this area and

I when I wouldn't be going short here I

might even fancy a cheeky long okay

right so worst case scenario I wouldn't

be in the market best case scenario I've

I'd have had a cheeky long on so it

would have been able to make money there

so if your general point of view is

always bearish and I always think the

market fools quicker than it can rally

so if you are trading home and you are

trying to make money at home I do like

being shoot doesn't mean you're blindly

bearish of the market the market tells

you what to do and that's how you move

forward what's your take on the latest

price action young Zach I think what's

interesting really just that the flow of

the guests has been you know very

bearish or really bearish and nobody's

even really questioned that at all which

is in try think that's just from a human

thing there was nobody sort of said well

actually it's going down I'm filling my

boots this is like bargain-basement

6,200 6,300 six tiles and whatever it is

there's nobody said that which I don't

know me it's I don't know whether that's

because it's just cooler to say that

you're a bear or because people are just

genuinely been fooled I mean it they led

sort of the other example of that is on

gold where there's but there was nobody

who said gold as a cell everybody sort

of said well I'm looking to buy it or

you know it's a weird how these things

sort of workout and same with the

footsie there's nobody came on and said

like six thousand one

over 6200 it's it's just ridiculously

cheap it's on a p/e of twelve leading

three and a half percent think that far

the closest was maybe Richard hunter

from Hargreaves Lansdown but there's no

because of like where you you know who's

surprised in terms of being bullish and

that's that's the thing now I mean it

could it just go all the way back up now

I mean it's likely in the November you

know december i think you know be a

priest sick market where it doesn't

rally by about five to ten percent over

november decision lease peaking we are

coming into a bullish time physically

but if we go back to for those people

who are practically dragging at home

people trying to follow the marks at the

market dictate where their trades are

going the markets told you what to do

yeah well these levels I've always been

bashed it's come down again I've come

close I've made knowledge it like

yesterday we had the Fed the Fed

announcement but that's the end of QE

you know it was a very was very you know

compelling to go short of the orchid

although to use it was very compelling

to go short and be short with the Ebola

with the eurozone going at a recession I

mean these are factors which are very

difficult it's very difficult to just

sitting at home as you're saying to

isolate yourself from these stories how

do you do that I think you've got to

concentrate on the price action now I

probably wouldn't have a position open

if I know the Fed of making a key

announcement I don't have positions open

before key economic indicators on any

market or I wouldn't have a position

open on a stock if I know it's about to

produce results I think that element of

uncertainty isn't needed when someone is

practically trading to me i would

actually described so if you if you

really want to be technical you actually

just forget about whether the Fed are

doing this or doing that because that's

a trading style isn't that puts you off

because if you if you'd been going by

the chart you'd be longer the footsie

Kurt if you'd be gained by the Fed you

would have got out of your long even

anything ganush the whole thing is is

when when you're actually trading I

think you've got to get as much

information as you possibly can and then

make a decision that suits your style

the best if you're trading over a

two-day timeframe or your trading over a

three month time frame you're going to

have a different outlook on what and you

no gravitas you put on each of those

different things to determine how you

feel you're going to make the best

amount of money for your portfolio yeah

now I gentle and I'm Trey

I'm trading short term I'm only trading

over a day or two days so I quite

frequently have no open positions when

the markets closed and generally

speaking big American announcements come

out when the markets closed so you know

that just suits my trading style then

I'm quite happy to follow the market

when the cash market opens I don't I've

been caught out before being the wrong

side precision thinking I'm the world's

greatest trader are non farm payrolls

going to come out in the markets going

to rally and and it does mad crazy

things you end up getting stopped out of

a long and a short position you lose

money and end up crying into a pint

glass on a Friday so if you are so my

advice would be someone trading at home

don't have a position open if you know

that's going to happen follow the market

afterwards I mean it's right we need to

go into the Dow Jones the next slide

because we are over running already so

just what I've highlighted here right so

absolute high low lower high so this is

where your bear trend and your bear

trends confirmed here we've come all the

way down now we've just had a rally all

the way up we've actually bettered the

last high yeah now we have a higher high

until we form a a higher low and not in

a bull trend yet and the interesting

thing here is is this such a strong move

here but look candlestick by a volume

and that's been confirmed by macd move

as well if you're just following the

chart you would at least have closed out

your short positions or you would have

been long no matter what else is

happening around the exact said you

would be long and look at the impost

strong moves up and you actually had

above average and volume their own value

on the on the actual trading volume

these are key things we look at when

we're looking at charts to determine if

a trend is going to change are we going

to go back about we're going to go to 17

400 I don't know yet but what I do know

is that a candlestick pattern is the

initiation of any of my trades yep so

until I have a cell position on a

candlestick which is then hopefully

backed up by momentum I would either be

long or I've missed this up move and I'm

out of the market okay let's just go to

last like 30 seconds to summarize what's

going on with gold you know Gold's are

very interesting thing at the moment

obviously it's really helped

one more slides it's really helped our

IP I don't know at Kinross obviously

have agreed to sell their fruit denote

project and so fortress minerals and

food minerals being backed up by the

London group the billionaire Swedish

family so clearly there's a lot of

interest in gold at the moment

especially the production stage which is

incredibly big help to us at IPR the

fact that Gold's falling down doesn't

really seem to make much difference

especially if you're in on the

production end of gold but look where we

are on the charts just coming back level

twelve hundred level when normal

Rodriguez all that very well yesterday

these he was super right we could

talk about this rouse we've overrun

sorry it's not your fault that's my

fault okay Steven main director IPR

capital and thank you for that so um

yeah this merstham cracking stuff going

on his neck because we're all full of we

want to talk about it let's take a break

and then we I did a pre recalled earlier

this week with a gentleman by the name

of Tommy burn the CEO of Anchorage

capital investment management he's

basically he's setting up a guitar funds

okay so this is an alternative

investment strategy based on guitars I

thought it's quite interesting so we'll

go straight to Tommy's pre-record that I

did straight after the break we'll be

back after that thanks

okay welcome back ladies and gentlemen

gives me great pleasure to introduce mr.

Tommy burn the chief executive officer

of Anchorage capital investment

management the reason for Tommy joining

us today simple we met an alternative

asset class conference recently and he

started to talk to me about guitars

which includes a passion for and then

basically started to explain that as an

asset class he was setting up a fun than

I thought you know what come on tip TV

let's have that conversation so Tommy

very good morning to you welcome to tip

TV goodness now my question my first

question is how I always do to new

people on the stage and what football

teams you spoke Dallas Cowboys the

cowboys there in London in a couple

weeks don't they are indeed I know any

reason are you from Dallas or harm in

New Yorker so I'm under your friends do

not truly appreciate this hawk would

imagine the New York has some lesson

happier giant Giants come in a close

second right but what about the New York

Jets yeah they don't exist to me are

they the enemy here I understood okay so

we may on this conference okay and

obviously there was a lot of people

there there was a lot of offerings and

you know that basically everyone was to

make money don't know so my first

question is is exactly what defines a

vintage guitar and what makes it

valuable but there are probably a few

different definitions flying around

there but i'll give you hours anyway

typically it's a guitar i made prior to

nineteen seventy nineteen twenty

nineteen seventy 50-year period what and

usually an American manufacturer like

Gibson vendor or Martin their many

others but the fact that they're old and

been haven't been played they go through

and I continent they have an iconic

value to them because they were played

by you know jimmy page's of the world

not necessarily his guitar but the model

that he would play okay or you know it

went through

the jazz period jazz musicians would

would make particular guitars more

famous people would want those guitar

and rock came along and that really sort

of exploded the the market so what

happens is I compare it somewhat to the

and people will kind of sniff at this

but strata very violent they go for

millions of dollars of course but for

the same reason they're the inherence

reason why a stringed instrument via to

guitar cello violin becomes more

valuable over time is because of the

constant vibration that from strumming

the string or Boeing with a violin

because more vibrations going through

the wood it actually changes the

molecular structure of the wood over

decades you become the wood becomes more

warm okay and you have a more individual

sound and you know that's better than

something straight out of the box right

okay since the actual guitar fund it's

been set up to take advantage of the low

risk high returns of a low correlated

collector asset class that shows very

little negative volatility is that fair

yeah I'm till very recently to be put a

fine point on it up until the late

unpleasantness of this financial crisis

yeah 2008 it really never went down

since tracking it over 20 odd years ago

the high end of the market the blue chip

guitars which range you know from 25,000

to 600,000 and again these are not

memorabilia guitars that have any

association with an artist that that's

been played by them or anything like

that but in fact just are collectibles

because they are of that iconic period

they they've gone up in value since the

turbulence not it not twenty-five

percent a year but a few a few points

and it seems that they're coming back

and going back up over the last 25 years

excuse me it's been over twenty five

percent a year that rose so they've had

it they've had a great run and then the

run does not seem to be over yet since

the vintage guitar market versus the

traditional investment strategies

outperforms underperforms in low-end no

doubt I mean it's it's always our

performed and they keep in mind however

that there is a an issue of liquidity so

people like to compare the wine you know

or coins or stamps art to the stocks and

bonds and traditional investments you

can but not as a substitute you have to

use these things as just you know throw

five percent maybe if your portfolio in

them long-term this in for guitars this

is a generational wealth management tool

rights because liquidity is not going to

allow you to jump in and out of them

okay you know there's not a sonic Stock

Exchange that you can go buy guitars on

and then sell them the next day after

taking up you know a five percent rides

and how they sort of compared in terms

of value to other collectibles pretty

pretty fair to be to be a frank about it

they they've really beaten for the most

part well let's pick line and art

because that seems to be what people

most think of when they think about a

collectible asset class over twenty odd

years they've outperformed them

significantly right but again we'll add

the caveat that they still are the

guitars are still a little bit less

liquid than wine and art right the big

difference between them though is this

is that every time you play a guitar

you're strumming it and you're actually

making it better you're actually

improving the value of that guitar as a

person if you drink any wine well your

value once you've drank the wine and

actually investments over yeah

um and he might have buyer's remorse the

next morning and same thing with art

although you can enjoy art on the wall

boss it's improving in value the more

you look at it it doesn't improve any

you know doesn't become any more

valuable so you know there's an inherent

value not just guitars but any string

musical instrument the more you play

you're creating value value so what in

terms of the guitar fundin let's put my

sort of stock market hat on what are the

pros and cons are going into that type

of fund if and the tip TV viewers

watching out there will you there are

absolutely no cons okay the biggest the

biggest con would be liquidity again I

mean did if you are happy to lock up

your money for a few years and then let

it play out order to say a 10-year term

which is what the fun is structured to

to do everything go up and down but yeah

to be fair this is the story line holds

it's a by it's a bond old investment

there there are there is an income

component to this however I give you a

very good example when Eric Clapton's

fender strat went on auction a few years

back it sold for at a time a record of

nine hundred and fifty nine thousand

five hundred dollars that was bought by

guitar center u.s. corporation and what

they did was was very clever they

created some intellectual property they

went to fender and to the artist to

Clapton said listen we want to reproduce

this guitar exactly as it is now

scratches and all and sell a limited

edition which they did I think for 275

mod of guitars and they I think and

check me on the prices on this but I

think they sold them for about forty

thousand dollars apiece well so if you

own that

guitar now you have revenue coming in

and so you get a twenty percent cut of

the profits do the math you know 40 40 r

and x 200 plus guitars and you've paid

for the guitar + yep and you still have

that asset to sell in 10 years time at

what is probably going to end up being

twenty-five percent of per year what up

oh sounds sensible stuff so if I'm

wanting to get involved in this fund how

do I get in touch with you just go to go

online and go to Anchorage capital

investment management said it stopping

it up eww thoughts Anchorage dash see

our m.com okay well I when I set up tip

TV I always wanted to look at all the

investments okay across the board okay

that's our first sort of alternative

asset class interview and I thought that

was extremely thought-provoking Tommy

burn a new your crew sports Dallas

Cowboys thank you very much coming on

tip TV really appreciate you miss bishop

okay welcome back to the show sorry for

that slightly late let's turn our

attentions to mr. Alan Green the CEO

traders on my own since me why don't

sleep he comes up with some sort of

fundamental of stocks generally buy and

hold Alan can you hear us on this fine

halloween morning good morning miss good

morning everyone you're so I can hear

now I'm clear right just to do basic

come up with a stock for us for for

consideration and we always say you know

people please make sure you do your own

homework you are a buy-and-hold

merchants um what what's on

consideration this morning Nick will

look at home retail group this is the

company that owns Argus and home and and

and home DIY home base the group

turnover consists of roughly seventy

percent Argus and 25 per cents home base

now under former chief executive Terry

duddy the group undertook a recovery it

was accused by various sections of the

media that the the Argus stores

resembles something from the Soviet era

1970s warehouse approached to retailing

which is probably a rather unkind but

Terry daddy the former chief exec

undertook a revamp of the stores and the

former MD of august John Walden took

over CEO earlier on this year he's

continue the good work the quarter to

trading update in September was very

solid the half-year results early this

month were even better August's

like-for-like sales were up to 22 and a

half percent home based sales were up

four percent and this was this is a

particular term round for the group

considering that they were considering

offloading home base early this year

there's also been a big boom in mobile

and online commerce with a group and you

may have seen with Argus in the run-up

to Christmas they've introduced various

incentives such as click and Collect

which is something that's also running

across ebay so they're really utilizing

mobile mobile commerce in a big way the

the shares have been fairly

unspectacular in their performance year

high of 225 PLO of 164 word about 180 p

now but this is a this is a solid

company that's growing well and Argus is

really well placed rethinking the run-up

to Christmas to capitalize on it on the

new channels it's brought to market the

brokers are fairly neutral on the stock

there's a consensus of six brokers

you've got a price target of 192 p so

obviously ahead of

where it is at the moment but we like

what what John Walton and the management

team are doing with with the group and

the I think the the x factor probably

lies with home base we know what's

happening at Argus we know that's going

to be push ahead but with the recovery

in the UK economy home base could very

good see some real really good returns

over the next year particularly next

spring which is when all the DIY

companies tend to tend to tend to enjoy

a a jump in fortune so we're looking at

the shares returning to two pounds by

Christmas we don't think that's

unreasonable and that's all of you today

brilliant Alan Green CEO traders own plc

thank you very much for taking time out

for your thoughts provoking comments

Thank You Alan they can okay let's take

our final break on the finance show this

week let's bring in men are slapped with

a partner TJ and partners was due on the

show yesterday unfortunately got busy

trading let's get him or just to run

through his foot see thoughts and you

share these wants to talk about is next

plc well we strike back after the break

thank you

welcome back to the show let's finish

the week off with mr. manoj lab or a

partner TJ and partners and a

stockbroker of stock broking

extraordinaire first what's a family

could do for halloween this evening oh i

don't know i mean you know I've seen

that you under strict reductions I'm out

this evening yo sir it's a day off for

me so wonderful well that's in the West

End that's good and let's um I basic you

were going to come on the show yesterday

got tied up work and you forwarded me

the foot see in the next your charts

let's go to the first chart this was the

footsie 100 um I I told the audience

that your views were that you thought

that this bad potential new looking for

a return mood 6000 yes obviously markets

locally strongly the last 24 hours on

the fact of the Bank of Japan are you

still comfortable thinking more bearish

and bullish thing so this term still

holding on to a short trades which are

but you're Hades against long positions

but if the market does carry on if it

does start setting off again

aggressively yeah then we'll look to add

to those positions as well yeah what's

interesting is that we've had that big

move down in the foot seat down 6100

bouncing back and it's a touch about

6,500 at the moment and we've got

various retracement levels at 65 66 and

resistance up to 67 as well but this

this bounce back has been on very low

volume so we can see on the on the right

hand side of the chart that the

conviction isn't quite there you ok yeah

for you to be relatively good if if

investors were buying with some

conviction it's not and therefore we

expect this to fizzle out fairly soon

the hundred and 200-day moving averages

are crossed over to the downside as well

yeah so that's again not a great that's

better that's a bearish signal medium

term is let the dead cross above the

mark we've got to remember that you know

the footsie hasn't really participated

in the upside so you've seen us indices

we had out Jones up at 17,000 the S&P do

fantastically well but the footsies

lagged behind so that tells us there

then that there's an underlying weakness

there and yeah

it's one of the key indices that we're

we're short of at the moment as well as

well as to a small extent the SP right

okay so basically we're still cautious

let's say on the footsie 100 let's move

on to the next slide now this is the

next chart again you highlight to the

fact that there was the unfilled gap on

the chart 255 pounds obviously this warm

weather has impacted supergroups morning

they've had a profits warning are you

still you are bearish what's your later

yeah I turn bearish on next a few weeks

ago and I came on the show mentioned

here various factors such as them not

paying their special dividend for the

rest of year the warm weather impacting

their month sales and a couple of days

ago they came out and updated the market

and they said look the warm weather is

affecting our sales and therefore you

know but we're we're reducing our

full-year guidance we saw a big move

down to 62 quid on the back of that news

is since bounce back up to around about

64 but the train in the near term seems

to have changed from from positive to

too bearish and there is a gap there to

fill down at 55 pounds so that's the

level i'm targeting obviously it needs

to break through that 62 pound 60-pound

level on on some conviction we need to

see some volume coming into stock but we

are seeing a pickup in volume on the

right hand side so i'm looking for that

gap to be filled i think it's going to

be filled within the next three months

or so so once we get the Christmas

period out of the way and they report

sales over Christmas and if the warm

weather continues and sales aren't great

then you know we could have that gap

filler I think this is like that didn't

read the warmest to Halloween since

nineteen sixty eight or something yeah

absolutely i mean yes it's unusually

warm out there yeah that does impact on

the other retailers and you know if

likes of next are hurting them what's

happening to the ones that don't operate

as efficiently as nectar the mls is the

area sauce stir the soup groups etc so

they're going to be feeling a feeling

the people i think this Christmas can be

ferocious on the on the high street I

think I mean yes it's already

competitive margins already being Swedes

as well so I think that's going to

continue okay right man I'll slap our

partner TGM partners thank you for your

thoughts

very kind right that wraps up the finite

show we're going to take a very quick

break then I'm going to hand you over to

Nigel wizard of odds Seeley in

conjunction with Ed Fulton Bay Eva

bassett the former manager of the

Wynwood crazy gang of Wally Downes of

former Wimbledon midfielder and QPR

assistant amongst other things right we

will be back very shortly thank you