Scientists Fact Check Natural Disasters In Movies | Vanity Fair

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at the very least maybe the tsunami will

put off some of the fires there is that

silver lining

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hi I'm Morgan page and I'm a

geophysicist with the US Geological

Survey in Pasadena California my name is

Mike Ango I'm the tzunami program

manager for the National Oceanographic

and Atmospheric Administration I'm Peter

Glick a hydrologist and climatologist

from the Pacific Institute in Oakland

California today we're going to be

reviewing some of Hollywood's biggest

disaster films and commenting on how

realistic they are this is toward the

end of the movie and the rock recognizes

boats are tilting in a way that suggests

that the water is receding pull around

like that he's right to be thinking

about that we've just had this strong

shaking tsunamis do tend to be

associated with that type of shaking

when you involve water but here's where

it starts to come off the rails what

they're depicting here is a giant

tsunami generated somewhere out in the

Pacific and there it is right there yeah

I don't think the world has seen this

large of a tsunami wave you would need a

major oceanic subduction zone type of an

event to generate that type of a wave

that mechanism does not exist in this

portion of the Pacific maybe we get some

fracturing the extension of the San

Andreas out there but it would all be

very kind of small just in first order

because of San Andreas the land is

moving horizontally it is a bit harder

to get tsunamis you need either vertical

motion of a fault to get a tsunami or

you need something where say the shaking

causes an underwater landslide and so

that gives you the movement of the

ground under the bay but you need

something a little different than you

would have in say a subduction zone

earth this one the way it's depicted you

can safely scratch off the list but

there is a long history of these movies

taking out the Golden Gate Bridge

well that's true figure out a way

if that was on your checklist take out

Golden Gate Bridge this is probably the

best way to do it I'm with you on that

Peter so when the earthquake hits the

house amanda peet and her family they

actually do the right thing in this

scene initially they drop cover and hold

on they get under a stable piece of

furniture which is offering them

protection from all the falling objects

but then john cusack arrives and tells

them to get out of there now their house

collapses shortly after so I guess it

was the right call given that that

happened but in reality a wood frame

house like this is one of the safest

places to be in an earthquake the scale

of what we're seeing is grossly

exaggerated in this clip the huge fall

scriptures popping up all over the place

how they're trying to outrun the seismic

waves in their car which is impossible

because they're too fast an earthquake

occurs when a fault that's been under

tremendous stress suddenly begins to

slip one side of the fault

moving relative to the other side and

that causes a generation of seismic

waves we could get P waves or the first

thing we feel followed by S waves and

followed by a surface waves and if

you're far from an earthquake a surface

wave which is a rolling kind of motion

it's typically the main thing that you

feel so you do have the rolling motion

of the earth but we're talking about

centimeters not meters you know we're

talking much smaller scales of

destruction than what we're seeing in

this movie this seems pretty unrealistic

I mean the one thing I liked about it

that they the family originally did the

right thing we've been completely undone

when they just had this over the top

ground motions that destroyed what would

have been probably a pretty safe place

to be in the earthquake

so we're in Antarctica scientists are

drilling ice cores which is something

that we do there is a tremendous amount

of information you can get from ancient

ice cores in Antarctic about climate

about weather about atmospheric

conditions and then like a good crazy

scientist who's been spending his life

collecting data

he jumps across the crevasse to try and

save some of the ice cores the day after

tomorrow is in some ways the best of the

really crazy disaster movies we do see

ice shelves breaking off in Antarctica

enormous ice shelves the size of the

states and part as a result of

human-caused climate change and as

temperatures go up we're beginning to

see fracturing of those shelves sitting

mostly on water at the moment and that

may accelerate the movement of land ice

into the oceans and that's what raises

sea level the speed we see here is not

realistic what's happening here is a

very fast crevasse forming and the ice

shelf moving quickly it's typically a

little bit slower than that but that's

what we're seeing here

what's happening

in the movie volcano it's so hot hid the

rubber on his sneakers is melting he's

struggling to move as he carries an

injured person off of the subway car wow

there's like lava just flowing down from

somewhere windows are breaking oh and

there's just you know there's just lava

everywhere flames it's really far and

he's got this guy on his back

oh he jumps as far as he can as far as I

know about the interaction between human

body and lava that seems realistic if

you're in a situation where there's a

slow-moving lava flow you can get fairly

close and it's not going to immediately

kill you it is realistic of stepping

into lava would kill you so as far as I

know it seems he's possible using

concrete barriers to stop a lava flow

and using water to stop a lava flow both

of these things have been done in the

real world you can sometimes use

concrete barriers to divert the lava

that's a little bit easier than um just

stopping it cuz it's gonna keep coming

but it's been done in Hawaii and in

Italy so in the movie it's depicted that

there is a volcano right under Los

Angeles and just to be clear there is

not a volcano right under Los Angeles um

there are places in the world where you

do get volcanoes but Los Angeles is not

one of those places here in LA it's one

of several possibilities

it's an iconic scene cow flying by

McKenna doesn't look all that perturb

they're wondering about the same cow or

different cow probably the scene that

everyone remembers from this movie there

is a lot of things that get you know

sucked up into these and distributed

around so including including livestock

the one quibble I have with this scene

is that when I first see the cow it go

is going one way and then the cow next

time I see it is going the other way

that would make sense if they're driving

right through the tornado I guess but it

looks like the tornado is off to the

side so I mean tornadoes are just gonna

suddenly switch direction that would not

be realistic but overall you know

livestock we think that's reasonable no

in the National Weather Service

you know contributed to some technical

advice and ideas to the filmmakers and I

think a lot of what's shown here shows

that natural evolution and trying to

better understand these systems

one of the fundamental characteristics

of almost all of these disaster movies

is that they try to build on things that

could be plausible but to a more extreme

sense and so the movie starts with a

series of clips from real extreme events

flooding tornadoes drying out of

reservoirs the worry of course is that

we are now modifying the climate in a

way that will make these more extreme

events even more damaging to

civilization and now it's transitioning

into massive CGI storms heatwave and

Madrid that kills millions of people and

the global response the world is coming

together and producing what in the

business we call geoengineering

Engineering options for mitigating the

consequences of human influence on the

climate and they're launching satellites

most of the geoengineering that we're

talking about now is really just talk

there are ideas of things that we can do

one could argue that a massive tree

planting campaign or building sea walls

is small-scale geoengineering but the

scale of the geoengineering described in

Geo Storm the planetary satellite

systems

that's not our near future

in the movie The Corrs we're just flying

right into monuments oh oh they're

crashing into windows

oh now it's all Hitchcockian everyone's

fleeing so that one of the premises of

the movie the core is that the outer

core of the earth has stopped spinning

so therefore there's no longer any

magnetic field so if there's no magnetic

field on earth a compass wouldn't work

and birds use the magnetic field to

migrate so they use it to find the

direction when they're migrating the

problem with this clip is that the birds

would still be able to see even without

a magnetic field I shouldn't just be

flying into buildings and statues for no

reason

Edwards navigate I say no no no the

long-range stuff

here's a world where something has gone

horribly wrong and it's a world of dust

a world of bad weather a world of crop

failure historically we've seen periods

when on a regional scale there have been

massive dust storms the famous Dust Bowl

in the 30s in the United States there

was a consequence partly of a very

severe multi-year drought in the great

plains of the US combined with at the

time

bad farming practices whether or not

that could happen at a global scale if

we're irresponsible with the climate and

with our human practices agricultural

practices industrial practices I guess

there's an open question Tom's score

simply isn't high enough Matthew

McConaughey's an engineer is a pilot in

a world now that he's told doesn't need

engineers they need farmers good farmers

like you and again there's a comment in

the scene we didn't run out of

television screens and planes we ran out

of food and there is a tension between

using resources in general for basic

needs versus resources for more advanced

technology that's already attention but

we also know that we could grow a lot

more food with a lot less water we could

use efficient irrigation systems we

don't have to over pump our groundwater

unsustainably we can grow crops that are

more water efficient rather than water

intensive this is the only habitable

planet we know of if we make it

uninhabitable

we're screwed we can't go somewhere else

now he can because they have a spaceship

that lets them do that but that's not

the world we live in today

Nelson's Torchy's whole crop light

they're saying it's the last harvest for

okra

ever okay well to have a sharknado you

need sharks number one the next thing

you have to do is you have to change the

weather in Southern California and then

you need a tornado you don't see these

over the ocean that often you need to

suck the sharks up into the tornado

check and now to really have the drama

you need a city that you can deposit

these sharks out of the tornado in Los

Angeles happens to be a conveniently

located so you're basically saying that

if we they accept all of that all of

that correct this could be a realistic

realistic of the ones five quoting

reverb scream great can't just wait here

and wait for sharks to rain down on us

again yeah so this was a particularly

bad storm hurricane and interacting with

mid-latitude weather what you're seeing

here is the attempt of the Coast Guard

who's being called in to do an at-sea

rescue it really gives you I think a

good sense just how difficult these

operations are under these conditions

credit to the Coast Guard that they do

that so this was you know not that

untypical of an Atlantic hurricane they

start to gain latitude and recurve and

typically will dissipate and become part

of the more mid-latitude structure and

those will be some strong winds and

things like that but every once in a

while they get trapped in sort of this

own what you call maybe more of a barrel

that kind of environment there you know

and they're able to really that's what

happened in this case here so it started

off as kind of any other hurricane ended

up being a very unusual storm when it

was at high latitude and probably more

dangerous than you typically see our

computer weather models are pretty

sophisticated

they do a pretty good job of showing you

where these dangerous areas are going to

be you know if you're a seasoned Mariner

you know working up there and you've

seen these things over your lifetime

when something anomalous like this comes

along you know maybe you're not quite as

willing to back off and I've done this

this is my livelihood I know how to

handle myself drive right through it

every once in a while something's going

to come along and surprise you and I

believe this was a case of that kind of

happening I think it's an accurate

depiction of the challenges faced with

at sea search and rescue operations and

extreme conditions absolutely this is

where they separate the men from the

boys so here we have a violently

erupting volcano and there are volcanic

bombs being extruded and hitting things

volcano bombs are a thing when have an

eruption you can have the lava coming

out of the volcano violently and then as

it's traveling through the air it cools

and hardens and they even tend to form

aerodynamic shapes because they're

curling through the air however Pompeii

did not have volcanic bombs the city was

actually remarkably well preserved the

buildings and such so just in the

archaeological evidence we don't believe

that Mount Vesuvius when it erupted in

79 AD had this type of feature but it

was a very violent eruption in fractions

of a second killed the inhabitants just

from the shoe shine and basically froze

that city in time as it was buried in 80

feet of ash the actual incidence of

volcanic bombs is not true but an

explosive eruption at Vesuvius killing

all these people very violently very

suddenly that's all absolutely true and

did happen

service

the classic story Noah the earth is

covered in storms they built the ark and

now all the non-believers want to get on

board but here comes the water there are

indications in the geologic record of a

massive flood that occurred in Sumerian

times three or four thousand BC that

resulted from a geologic event that

released a big body of water that caused

the huge flood in the Middle East not a

global flood but a massive flood that

probably was then passed down through

word of mouth through the legends and

the myths of the people who live there

he wouldn't get those bursts of water

from the ground but extreme rain and

flooding is common we live on a water

planet 97% of the world's waters in the

oceans and there's water in our rivers

and lakes and there's water in the

atmosphere and it's cycles we get

evaporation formation of clouds

condensations rain and snow back to the

oceans runoff to the oceans there is a

lot of land ice in Antarctica and

Greenland but not enough to cover the

surface of the earth if all of the land

ice melted fall of the water were in the

oceans it would raise sea level very

substantially but even there only 100

feet at most and so land above that

level would still be out of the oceans

without divine intervention there's not

enough water to completely cover the

earth the storm cannot be stopped

but it can be survived this is based on

real events this is Thailand and about

500 kilometers away we've had a

magnitude 9 earthquake happen and has

unleashed a tsunami in all directions

I think the scene is brilliant for a

number of reasons number one you should

see the animals all of our I witness

reports of tsunamis impacting usually

involve the animals recognizing that

something's not right is this war wave

this leading wave of the tsunami

approaches of coastline it makes noise

sort of loud and I think they did a nice

job showing that the next thing is that

you see or the palm trees go down and

that really is the first indication that

there is something bad is happening

your natural warning signs are your best

indicators of a tsunami we feel strong

shaking and it lasts for some duration

go to high ground this has generated 500

kilometers away they wouldn't have felt

any shaking there's almost nothing they

could do so here comes the water but

what it's doing is it's taking out

mostly the ground floor so if you had

had been conditioned enough to be able

to get up one or better two floors most

of that water you know is going to get

below you you know that would have been

a good evacuation after this event we

now under the UN have a comprehensive

international forecast and warning

system and this type of tsunami will

likely not happen again in this way

because of the advanced warnings now

again it but it was too late for them we

had to learn the lesson unfortunately

not only is that clip exceptionally

realistic if someone were to ask me

what's it like to go through a tsunami I

think I would refer them to this movie

it's that detailed and that accurate

so we're gonna Park in New York City it

appears ordinary-looking breeze but in

fact it's a very menacing breeze because

that's what's carrying some sort of

toxin or chemical that is being emitted

by plants to turn humans into suicidal

zombies police officer has just shot

himself another zombie person is getting

out of the car walking over to the gun

though don't do it basically having

their revenge on the human race for

probably good reason and decided to make

us off ourselves there plenty of plants

that have all sorts of psychotropic and

properties that's some people may know

from direct experience and there were

plants that will hurt you if you eat

them or touch them I think the closest

thing to this is there is a fungus that

will cause ants to climb to the top of

blades of grass that makes the ant in a

way suicidal at least this amplifies the

ANA it climbs the top of the blade

grounds everywhere so that's like the

closest thing I'm trying really hard to

find something related as plausible now

that's all I got

clearly this is complete nonsense but

you know the earth is resilient and even

if humans don't make it for whatever

reason

plants likely will what

this is one of many movies with dam

failures water is a powerful thing

and I guess we have a bank robbery going

on here there's Morgan Freeman things

are erupting everywhere there goes the

ban as part of our water system we build

big dams we've learned over the last

hundred years how to build really big

dams and sometimes they fail and when

they fail really bad things happen so

the way dam failures typically work is

there's a weak spot either in the dam

itself that's overwhelmed by a massive

flood upstream or there's something with

the geologic formation that the dam is

built in or if the dam was built to the

wrong standards and once you have a

little failure you get a big failure

because the power of water is so

overwhelming it punches through any

weakness and I think this is probably

not an unrealistic depiction of a big

dam failure

exactly

we have very active super cell type of

tornados here through three

it Drive really a big fire now and a big

fire firenado there are plenty of people

who run around trying to film these

disasters or have tram yeah that would

turn that there would be no mistake yeah

there it goes

tornadoes come from what are called

supercell thunderstorms what happens

there's a lot of up and a lot of dam

that's associated with that thunderstorm

the air is coming down that air spreads

out of the surface and sometimes due to

friction and other forces you'll start

to see it rotate every once in a while

that rotation gets literally sucked up

into the supercell which is also

rotating in the same direction and when

that happens we have seen fire tornadoes

associated primarily with wildfires

where you get significant temperature

differences you have a fire you have a

lot of convective activity fire

tornadoes are a thing flying debris is

the big problem with tornadoes so most

would want to have some sort of

underground shelter where you're

shielded from that if you can't you want

to find an interior room that isn't

going to be susceptible to things flying

in windows the idea that you can have

multiple torn attic outbreaks

and I think if you were happy to hit

something on fire like that it would

suck the fire so I would say this is not

a completely unreasonable depiction of a

severe severe tornado out

one of the themes of all of these

disaster movies which some of us love to

watch is whether or not humans will

survive how we'll survive what the

threats are the challenge our ability to

survive and we're not worried about all

life on the planet going extinct because

of these kinds of things we're worried

about humans and whether or not we're

gonna be smart enough to foresee and

prevent the disasters that either were

responsible for or that we might see

coming as a species just don't have it

within our capacity to look forward

enough to get in front of these problems

we're very good at dealing and we have

no other choice I'm gonna try to quote

Winston Churchill here and you can

really count on the Americans to do the

right thing once they've exhausted every

other alternative I have a sense that

when push comes to shove and we really

have to step up and make a difference we

may just figure it out

for some of these things it's time to

step up now

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