Soccermatics: how maths explains football | David Sumpter | TEDxUppsalaUniversity

so when I was 10 years old I absolutely

loved football and more than that I

loved Liverpool Football Club this is a

picture of me when I was 10

I'm the one with a Liverpool shirt on

the cute one with the Scotland strip

that's my little brother Colin now while

I loved football I wasn't any good you

know that thing where you're in the

school playground and two people have to

pick teams to play against each other

well I was always the one who was picked

last but there were other things that I

loved when I was 10 years old I really

liked math and I totally loved computers

and those other two passions they took

me on a wonderful adventure I studied

the mathematics of ant trails showing

how these small animals can build

massive transport networks I looked at

the algorithms behind how they organized

their traffic and how they collect food

I studied the mathematics of fish

schools showing how they can escape as

one from a predator despite just

interacting with a few nearby neighbors

I studied the mathematics of bird

navigation how they interact with each

other follow each other how they produce

consensus decisions decide where they're

going to fly together

I studied our social behavior I looked

at how clapping was a contagion how when

we coordinate our applause after a

seminar or after a TED seminar like this

we can move together and coordinate in a

in a very coordinated manner and this

mathematical journey I took has led me

all around the world to collaborate with

lots of different researchers at

different prestigious universities I

have the most amazing

job I get to talk to people about

different systems and then I get to

build mathematical models which help

them understand these systems better but

the football though I never I never

completely gave up on the football I

still played with friends still badly I

watched on television I went to matches

but I never really saw any connection

between my interest in football and my

interest in research the friends I had

who were interested in football where

they didn't really care about ants and

fish and all the mathematical models I

did so there was no real connection

there but then a remarkable thing

happened this this is my son Henry when

he was 9 years old he's playing this is

a picture taken from the local newspaper

he's playing against boys twice his size

it turned out that Henry had the talent

which I lacked so did lots of his

friends and I ended up with a bunch of

other enthusiastic dad's coaching

Henry's team uppsala EF and it was

really then that I started to think

again about was there a coupling between

mathematics and football when I was

training these players I was trying to

see if there was mathematics behind it

and I found a lot of mathematics in

football I started with randomness and

last-minute changes of fortune I worked

out that about two-thirds of a football

match comes down to randomness I looked

at vector fields of passing of players

and I could make player forecasts just

like we can make weather forecasts

I talked to Premier League Scouts about

how they could use these forecasts to

pick the players who were best fit into

their team

I studied passing and positioning I

found out the best places to take a shot

from and how to make a passing

combination

I studied shots and goals in terms of

statistics and probability and worked

out who was the best

Riker in the world I looked at passing

networks how teams are connected

together and managers use these passing

networks to scout out the opposition

find which connections are most used and

try and break them down and I studied

the geometry of the game I worked out

that Barcelona's team of 2010/11 created

the most beautiful geometry ever seen on

a football pitch and I looked at

strategy and game theory and how they

could be used to explain the evolution

the constant changing evolution of

football strategies and I even studied

the mathematics behind Latin Ibrahimovic

is incredible bicycle kick against

England there is so much mathematics in

football since I did all of these

analysis I've had this amazing

opportunity to talk to Premier League

scouts and analysts about how the game

should be played most teams now have

some form of mathematician who works for

them and tries to work out how the team

can play better together one thing

though I haven't yet been signed for

Liverpool and I thought I'd take this

opportunity Jurgen Klopp if you're

watching just give me a call I'm

available this is my daughter Elise I

finally when I was going to give a TED

talk I finally got her to sit down and

actually have a look at the book that

I've written about mathematics and

football at least is 13 years old and

she thinks a lot about how the world

works just like I did when I was that

age and when I was writing soccer Mattox

when I was studying how mathematics and

football were connected together I'd

often think about what I could

communicate to her at least isn't

interested in Barcelona's geometry or

Ronaldo shot statistics what is it I can

tell

about the the coupling between

mathematics and football the thing that

I would like to say to release and to

Henry and to all of you is that

mathematics is not for some detached

geniuses it's not about picking you you

you you're going to be in the best team

and other people aren't in the team

mathematics is like a kickabout with

friends it's about getting stuck in it's

about getting dirty and enjoying

yourself it's about using your

imagination it's about using is building

up analogies between different parts of

the world

mathematics is something that all of us

can and should be doing now often it

talks like this you see someone like me

waving their hands about saying

mathematics is in everything

mathematics is everywhere away and I

have just done that and it is something

I agree with there is a lot of

mathematics in the world

I showed a lot of mathematics in

football but while there is mathematics

in everything it doesn't mean that

mathematics is the answer to the meaning

of life the universe and everything the

answer isn't 42 it isn't any other

number it isn't some complicated

equation that nobody else understands

what I learnt from thinking about maths

and football was a lot more modesty

about my subject so I can study Newton's

equations as much as I want but I'll

never be able to do a lot on ibrahimovic

bicycle cake I can study the geometry of

Barcelona but I'll never be able to pass

in the way those players can I can study

game theory and strategy but I'll never

be able to manage a team like Peirce and

Hagen or Pep Guardiola I can study as

many fancy calculations make lots of

fancy calculations but in the end I'll

still be that boy ten years old in the

Liverpool strip who can't play football

and only has a small insight into this

incredible complex and complicated world

we live in

mas can't allow us to understand

everything not even close

there's lots of things in the world that

we'll never understand but what

mathematics does give us it gives us

this edge it gives us that little extra

bit of understanding it us to win just a

few more matches than we lose and that

is why mathematics is important to me to

you and every one of us thank you